What is a value prediction
How to compare model probability with the market and why a correct prediction is not always value.
Read article →Knowledge base
Prediction analytics without myths
Formulas, methodology and model limitations, with clear examples and links to public results.
EV in sports predictions
The expected value formula, a calculation example and the metric's limitations.
Read article →Kelly criterion and bankroll management
How Kelly connects probability, odds and an appropriate position size.
Read article →How to evaluate ROI and drawdown
Why hit rate alone is insufficient and which long-run metrics matter.
Read article →Why every sport needs its own ML model
Which data changes from sport to sport and why one prediction logic cannot be applied to every discipline.
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