PingWin PRO methodology
EV in sports predictions
The expected value formula, a calculation example and the metric's limitations.
Formula
For decimal odds, EV = probability × odds − 1. Multiply the result by 100% to express it as a percentage.
Why EV changes
Odds move, changing both the break-even threshold and EV. Record the calculation time and never apply an old EV estimate to new odds.
Limitations
EV is only as useful as the probability calibration behind it. Analyze it together with actual results, sample size and drawdown.
Ready-to-share content
Telegram — RU
📘 EV в спортивных прогнозах Формула expected value, пример расчёта и ограничения метрики. https://pingwin.pro/analytics/expected-value-ev
Telegram — EN
📘 PingWin PRO analytics: EV in sports predictions The expected value formula, a calculation example and the metric's limitations. https://pingwin.pro/en/analytics/expected-value-ev
Forum — RU
EV в спортивных прогнозах. Формула expected value, пример расчёта и ограничения метрики. В материале приведены формула, ограничения и примеры на открытых данных PingWin PRO. https://pingwin.pro/analytics/expected-value-ev
Forum — EN
EV in sports predictions. The expected value formula, a calculation example and the metric's limitations. The guide includes formulas, limitations and examples using public PingWin PRO data. https://pingwin.pro/en/analytics/expected-value-ev
See the methodology applied to real results
Completed predictions are public, while subscribers receive new signals before matches start.