PingWin PRO methodology
What is a value prediction
How to compare model probability with the market and why a correct prediction is not always value.
The core idea
Value appears when the estimated outcome probability is higher than the probability implied by the odds after margin. It is not a promise of winning one match, but a mathematical edge over a series of events.
A simple example
Odds of 2.00 imply a break-even point of about 50%. If a calibrated model estimates 55%, the expected value is approximately +10%. A single outcome can still lose.
How PingWin verifies it
The model records the prediction and available odds before the match starts. Once completed, the result enters the public archive so quality can be evaluated by ROI, drawdown and sample size.
Ready-to-share content
Telegram — RU
📘 Что такое value-прогноз Как сравнить вероятность модели с линией и почему правильный прогноз не всегда является value. https://pingwin.pro/analytics/what-is-value-prediction
Telegram — EN
📘 PingWin PRO analytics: What is a value prediction How to compare model probability with the market and why a correct prediction is not always value. https://pingwin.pro/en/analytics/what-is-value-prediction
Forum — RU
Что такое value-прогноз. Как сравнить вероятность модели с линией и почему правильный прогноз не всегда является value. В материале приведены формула, ограничения и примеры на открытых данных PingWin PRO. https://pingwin.pro/analytics/what-is-value-prediction
Forum — EN
What is a value prediction. How to compare model probability with the market and why a correct prediction is not always value. The guide includes formulas, limitations and examples using public PingWin PRO data. https://pingwin.pro/en/analytics/what-is-value-prediction
See the methodology applied to real results
Completed predictions are public, while subscribers receive new signals before matches start.